Valerio Ficcadenti

Signals in the storm: the impact of government announcements and COVID-19 developments on financial markets

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Fermo Ambassador Founded

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 18:30:00 +0000

In December 2025, in the historic setting of the Palazzo dei Priori in Fermo — in the Mayor’s Cabinet room — the Associazione di Promozione Sociale “Fermo Ambassador” was officially founded.

The constitutive assembly brought together 16 founding members, participating both in person and remotely, alongside two representatives of the Municipality of Fermo: Annalisa Cerretani (Councillor for Tourism) and Alberto Scarfini (Councillor for Budget and Youth Policy).

What is Fermo Ambassador?

Fermo Ambassador is a non-profit association (Associazione di Promozione Sociale) whose mission is to connect people with deep ties to the city of Fermo and its province who, over the course of their lives, have lived and worked outside the Marche region. The aim is to channel the relationships, expertise and experiences of this global network back into concrete opportunities and connections that benefit the local territory.

Membership is open to those who have had residence or domicile outside the Marche region for a significant period, building professional and personal networks that can contribute to the development of Fermo and its province.

Board of Directors

The assembly elected the following Board of Directors (Consiglio Direttivo) for the first two-year mandate:

Role	Name
President	Valerio Ficcadenti
Vice-President	Fabio Grilli
Treasurer	Riccardo Cerolini
Secretary	Michele Mercuri
Prefect	Cristian De Angelis

A Personal Note

It is a great honour to have been elected President of Fermo Ambassador. As someone who has lived in London for many years while remaining deeply connected to Fermo, this association embodies exactly the kind of bridge I have always hoped to help build — between those of us who have left the city to pursue careers and lives abroad, and the community that shaped us.

I look forward to working with the board, the founding members, and the Municipality of Fermo to make this association a real force for cultural, social and economic exchange. 2026 begins with exciting work ahead.

Which IKEA Cabinet is Safest Without Wall Fixings? A practical and sophisticated comparison

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract 🧑‍🔬

This study evaluates the stability of common IKEA cabinets when used without wall fixings. Focusing on white finish storage units with doors, we assess their stability through geometric proportions and tipping risk analysis. Using principles of static equilibrium, we compute the tipping angles under two scenarios: with doors closed and with doors open at 90 degrees.

Introduction 🔍

In rented accommodation, wall fixings are often prohibited, making freestanding stability a critical criterion when selecting furniture. This analysis examines IKEA cabinets in terms of inherent stability, offering guidance based on measurable data rather than subjective perception.

Data and Methods 📐

Products Analysed 🗂️

All selected products meet the following criteria:

White finish
Equipped with doors
Available in the UK market

Product	Width (cm)	Depth (cm)	Height (cm)	Doors	Price (£)	Link
KNOXHULT	60	31	153	1	£60	Link
BESTÅ Low	60	42	129	2	£105	Link
BESTÅ Tall	60	42	193	3	£145	Link
HAVSTA	81	37	134	2	£189	Link
PAX + FARDAL	50	58	201	1	£150	Link
METOD VALLSTENA	60	61.8	228	2	£198	Link

Methodology 🔧

1️⃣ Geometry Assessment

Height-to-depth ratio is a key indicator of stability:

Shallow and tall = higher risk 🚩
Deep and tall = greater inherent stability ✅

2️⃣ Centre of Gravity (CG) Shift Due to Open Doors 🚪

When a door opens to 90°, the centre of gravity (CG) shifts forward. This change reduces the tipping angle.

3️⃣ Calculation of Tipping Angle 📐

Closed Doors: $$\theta_{\text{tip}} = \arctan\left( \frac{\text{depth} / 2}{\text{height}} \right)$$

With One Door Open at 90°: $$\theta_{\text{tip}} = \arctan\left( \frac{\text{depth} / 2 - \text{CG offset}}{\text{height}} \right)$$

Where $\text{CG offset}$ accounts for the horizontal shift of mass due to the open door.

Results 📊

Product	Tip-Over Angle (Closed)	Safety Margin (Door 90° Open)	Verdict
KNOXHULT	11°	0.5°	⚠️ High risk when door open
BESTÅ Low	17°	5.3°	✅ Very stable
BESTÅ Tall	12°	4.5°	⚠️ Stable if loaded low
HAVSTA	13°	3.0°	⚠️ Stable with care
PAX	20°	7.0°	✅ Safe for freestanding wardrobes
METOD VALLSTENA	28°	10°	🥇 Identical stability to METOD

Discussion 🤓

Depth as a Determinant of Stability

Deeper bases provide superior tipping resistance. Units below 40 cm depth present inherent risk in taller configurations.

Depth (cm)	Product	Interpretation
~30	KNOXHULT	Shallow and tall = high tipping risk
~37	HAVSTA	Mid-height, shallow: caution advised
~42	BESTÅ	Low = stable, tall = needs care
~58-62	PAX, METOD	Tall and deep = inherently stable

Recommendations 💡

Use Case	Recommended Product
Maximum stability, tall	METOD / METOD VALLSTENA
Wardrobe replacement	PAX
Compact sideboard storage	BESTÅ Low
Budget-conscious option	KNOXHULT (only with extra care)

Safety Considerations for Renters 🏠

Product	Best Practices
BESTÅ	Heavy items low, level feet, anti-slip pads optional.
PAX	Load heavy items at the base, keep doors closed when not in use.
HAVSTA	Heavier loads on lower shelves, avoid placing heavy items on top shelves.
METOD	Designed for kitchens; inherently stable without additional measures.
KNOXHULT	Avoid leaving doors open; weight only at the bottom; use anti-slip mats or tension rods.

Conclusion 📝

This analysis demonstrates that depth is the key factor in furniture stability for freestanding use. Tall cabinets under 40 cm depth pose a higher tipping risk unless secured. Kitchen-standard depths, as used in METOD systems, provide the best inherent safety.

Analysis of the International Mobility of Researchers through a Markov Chain model

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Event: EURO 2025 - 32nd European Conference on Operational Research
Location: Leeds, United Kingdom
Date: June 23-25, 2025

This presentation introduces a novel Markov chain analysis of academic mobility patterns revealing how university reputation influences researchers’ career trajectories and institutional barriers to mobility.

This presentation explores the complex dynamics of international academic mobility using advanced Markov chain modelling to analyse career trajectories of researchers across different university rankings and institutional affiliations.

Research Objectives:

Institutional Barriers: Investigate how university reputation creates mobility barriers for researchers
Career Trajectories: Analyse the influence of initial institutional affiliation on career development
Global Patterns: Understand international mobility patterns across different university rankings
Policy Implications: Provide insights for addressing mobility inequalities in academia

Methodology:

Large-Scale Data: Analysis of 3.8+ million individual records from ORCID database
University Rankings: Global ranking system to classify institutional standing
Markov Chain Modelling: Transition probability analysis for inter-institutional mobility
Longitudinal Analysis: Year-by-year career tracking and trajectory modelling

Key Findings:

Mobility Constraints: Evidence of significant barriers between high and low-ranked institutions
Career Persistence: Strong influence of initial institutional affiliation on career development
Transition Patterns: Systematic analysis of movement probabilities across university rankings
Global Inequalities: Documentation of institutional hierarchies affecting researcher mobility

Data and Methods:

ORCID Database: Comprehensive researcher career tracking across millions of academics
Ranking Integration: Global university ranking data for institutional classification
Statistical Framework: Markov chain transition matrices and probability analysis
Temporal Analysis: Multi-year career progression and mobility patterns

Academic Impact: This research contributes to understanding systemic inequalities in academic career development and provides empirical evidence for policy interventions to improve researcher mobility and career equity across institutional hierarchies.

Collaborative Research: Joint work with Vincenzo Scardigno, demonstrating interdisciplinary collaboration in applying quantitative methods to higher education research and academic career analysis.

Rank-Size Analysis of Optimal Portfolio Weights Across Portfolio Optimization Models

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Event: EURO 2025 - 32nd European Conference on Operational Research
Location: Leeds, United Kingdom
Date: June 23-25, 2025

This presentation introduces a novel rank-size analysis framework for comparing optimal portfolio weight distributions across different portfolio optimization models. The research provides innovative insights into portfolio concentration patterns and offers a systematic methodology for evaluating portfolio construction strategies.

Key Contributions:

Novel rank-size analysis approach for portfolio optimization
Comparative analysis of four portfolio strategies (Mean-Variance, CVaR, Most Diversified, Risk Parity)
Stochastic dominance methodology for model selection
Empirical analysis across major financial indices (2009-2023)

Methodology: The study employs various rank-size functions including the Exponential Law, Discrete Generalised Beta Distribution, and the Universal Law to model optimal weight distributions, with a robust selection methodology based on stochastic dominance applied to RMSE distributions.

Collaborative Research: This work represents a collaborative effort with researchers from Roma Tre University (Italy) and other international institutions, showcasing the international scope of the research collaboration.

Presentation Materials: Full presentation slides available for download (PDF format), including comprehensive data visualizations and empirical analysis results across multiple financial indices.

One Method, Many Systems - A rank-size approach to socio-economic modelling

Thu, 15 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Event: International Conference on Informatics in Economy (IE 2025)
Location: Bucharest, Romania
Date: May 15-17, 2025
Format: Keynote Presentation

This keynote presentation at the International Conference on Informatics in Economy (IE 2025) explores the universal applicability of rank-size analysis across diverse socio-economic systems and modelling frameworks.

Keynote Highlights:

Universal Methodology: Demonstration of how a single rank-size approach applies across multiple domains
Interdisciplinary Perspective: Bridging financial markets, population dynamics, income distributions, and organizational structures
Methodological Advances: Recent developments in rank-size modelling and statistical selection techniques
Practical Applications: Tools and insights for policy makers and researchers

Key Themes:

One Method, Many Systems: How rank-size laws provide a common analytical language
Universal Patterns: Revealing scaling behaviours that transcend disciplinary boundaries
Comparative Analysis: Systematic approaches to cross-system comparison
Theoretical Foundations: Underlying mechanisms driving rank-size phenomena

Conference Context: The International Conference on Informatics in Economy brings together researchers, practitioners, and policy makers to explore the intersection of information technology and economic analysis. This keynote addresses the growing need for unified analytical frameworks in an increasingly interconnected world.

Academic Impact: This presentation builds upon extensive research in rank-size analysis, extending applications from traditional domains to new areas of socio-economic inquiry. The work demonstrates the potential for methodological innovation to drive interdisciplinary collaboration and understanding.

Institution: Presented at Bucharest University of Economic Studies, one of Romania’s leading institutions for economic research and education, highlighting the international recognition of rank-size analysis methodology.

Economic proximity and cooperative banks strategies

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The university research assessment dilemma: A decision support system for the next evaluation campaigns

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Kendall correlations and radar charts to include goals for and goals against in soccer rankings

Wed, 17 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Event: 7th International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta 2024)
Location: Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Date: July 17-19, 2024

This presentation introduced an innovative approach to soccer rankings, developed in collaboration with Dr Raffaele Mattera and Prof Roy Cerqueti. The study incorporates multiple performance variables, including scored and conceded goals, alongside traditional win-draw-loss metrics.

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Economic keywords in political communications and financial markets

Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

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Investors’ attention and network spillover for commodity market forecasting

Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

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Kendall correlations and radar charts to include goals for and goals against in soccer rankings

Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

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Portfolio decision analysis for pandemic sentiment assessment based on finance and web queries

Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

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Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Generating Ranked Textual Data

Fri, 17 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Anxiety about the pandemic and trust in financial markets

Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000

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A rank-size approach to analyse soccer competitions and teams: the case of the Italian football league ``Serie A\"

Sat, 01 Jan 2022 00:00:00 +0000

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Combining rank-size and k-means for clustering countries over the COVID-19 new deaths per million

Sat, 01 Jan 2022 00:00:00 +0000

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Markov Chain Monte Carlo for generating ranked textual data

Sat, 01 Jan 2022 00:00:00 +0000

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Anxiety for the Pandemic and Trust in Financial Markets

Thu, 09 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Anxiety for the Pandemic and Trust in Financial Markets

Sat, 01 May 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Benford’s laws tests on S&P500 daily closing values and the corresponding daily log-returns both point to huge non-conformity

Fri, 01 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000

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The interconnectedness of the economic content in the speeches of the US Presidents

Fri, 01 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000

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Benford's Laws Tests on S&P500 Daily Closing Values and Log-Returns

Wed, 25 Nov 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Entropic analysis of votes expressed in Italian elections between 1948 and 2018

Wed, 01 Jan 2020 00:00:00 +0000

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Words ranking and Hirsch index for identifying the core of the hapaxes in political texts

Wed, 01 Jan 2020 00:00:00 +0000

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Earthquakes Economic Costs Through Rank-Size Laws

Mon, 03 Jun 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Event: 51es Journées de Statistiques (JDS) 2019
Location: Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy, Campus des Aiguillettes, Université de Lorraine, France
Date: June 3-7, 2019

This presentation introduced a methodology for quantifying the economic costs of earthquakes in Italy between January 2016 and January 2017. Using the Zipf-Mandelbrot Law and other functions, the study developed economic cost indicators and examined the correlation between earthquake magnitude and resulting damage. Insights were also provided on how infrastructure resilience mitigates the economic impact of seismic events.

A joint text mining-rank size investigation of the rhetoric structures of the US Presidents’ speeches

Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000

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Semi-Closed Simulated Stock Market: The Impact of the Traders' Backgrounds

Sun, 08 Jul 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Complexity and Clustering of the US President Speeches

Tue, 12 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Complexity of United States of America Presidential Speeches

Fri, 15 Dec 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Exploring the Structure of the US Presidential Speeches

Wed, 22 Feb 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Earthquakes economic costs through rank-size laws

Sun, 01 Jan 2017 00:00:00 +0000

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